Showing posts with label Statistical Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistical Analysis. Show all posts

Monday, December 13, 2010

Accuracy of Hollinger Ratings, Simple Ratings System and Win-Loss in Playoff Series

Totals from 2004-2005 through 2009-2010

Higher Playoff Seed: 56-19
Simple Ratings System(http://www.basketball-reference.com/) : 57-18
Hollinger Rankings Total: 51-24
Hollinger's Formula =  Rating= (((Sos-0.5)/0.037) *0.67)+(((Sos L10-0.5)/0.037)*.33) + 100 + (0.67*(Marg+ (((Road-Home)*3.5) / (games))))+ (.33(Margin L10+(((Road 10- Home 10)*3.5)/10))))

Why is Hollinger's Ratings Flawed?

First, let me say that these results are not statistically significant. While I have proven statistical significance that determines SRS is a better statistical model than win-loss (albeit slightly, but any formula that can outperform win-loss is impressive) by going back to the 1950 playoffs, I have only done Hollinger ratings from 2004-2005 until now, and this sample is not large enough to be statistically significant.

That said, there is a trend emerging...